Money Talks

Money Talks

Recent unemployment numbers have undermined confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession. The appropriate metaphor is not the green shoots of new growth. It's better to view the total of jobless people as a prudent navigator perceives an iceberg.

What we see on the surface is disconcerting enough. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of 467,000 jobs lost in June increases to 7.2 million the number of unemployed since the start of the recession.

The cumulative job losses over the past six months have been greater than for any other half-year period since World War II, including demobilization. What's more, the job losses are now equal to the net job gains over the previous nine years, making this the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all employment growth from the previous business cycle.

That's bad enough. But here are nine reasons we are in even more trouble than the 9.5% unemployment rate indicates:

1. June's total included 185,000 people assumed to be at work but many of whom probably were not. The government could not identify them; it made an assumption about trends.

But many of these mythical jobs are in industries such as finance that have absolutely no job creation. As official numbers are adjusted over the next several months, some of the 185,000 will likely be added to the unemployment totals.

2. More companies are asking employees to take unpaid leave. These people don't count on the unemployment rolls.

3. At least 1.4 million people weren't counted among the unemployed, even though they wanted work or were available in the past 12 months. Why? Because they hadn't searched for work in the four weeks preceding the survey. The assumption is that they had found work or don't want it, but there are other explanations: school attendance, family responsibilities, sheer exhaustion.

4. The number of workers taking part-time jobs because of the slack economy, a kind of stealth underemployment, has doubled in this recession to about 9 million, or 5.8% of the work force. Add those whose hours have been cut and the total of unemployed and underemployed rises to 16.5%, putting the number of involuntarily idle workers in the range of an overwhelming 25 million.

5. The inside numbers are just as bad. The average workweek for production and non supervisory private-sector employees, around 80% of the work force, dropped to 33 hours. That's 48 minutes a week less than before the recession began, the lowest level of activity since the government began tracking such data 45 years ago.

Full-time workers are being downgraded to part-time as businesses slash labor costs to remain above water. Factories operate at only 65% of capacity. If American workers were still putting in those extra 48 minutes a week, 3.3 million fewer employees could perform the same aggregate amount of work. With a longer workweek, the unemployment rate would reach 11.7%, not the official 9.5% (which in turn dramatically exceeds the 8% rate projected by the Obama administration).

6. The average length of official unemployment increased to 24.5 weeks. This is the longest term since the government started to track these data in 1948. The number of long-term unemployed (those out of a job for 27 weeks or more) has now jumped to 4.4 million, an all-time high.

7. The average worker saw no wage gains in June, with average compensation running flat at an average of $18.53 an hour.

8. The jobs report is even uglier when you consider that the sector producing goods is losing the most jobs -- 223,000 in the last report alone.

9. The prospects for job creation are equally distressing. The likelihood is that when economic activity picks up, employers will first choose to increase hours for existing workers and bring part-time workers to full-time status.

Money Talks the Solution

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Dr. Raymond Jewell-Senior Economist
Money Talks
Financial Freedom Radio

Money Talks Reference

Money Talks

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Few individuals derive quite so much pleasure from digging through data as Charles Biderman. He's the always-opinionated, hyper-watchful numbers hound behind TrimTabs Investment Research, the firm that FORTUNE partnered with to build our Recovery Index.

And though he's a Harvard Business School grad, Biderman's insights about how the market moves are more than purely academic. In order to pay back his school loans, he spent the 1970s and 1980s building a career in real estate development until, in 1988, his bank went broke and his loans were called.

Biderman was forced into personal bankruptcy and emerged with key insight: price is a function of liquidity, it has nothing to do with value.

That notion led him to form TrimTabs, which sells proprietary research about the markets, money flows and the economy to investors (currently one-fourth of the biggest hedge funds in the United States are clients, and Goldman Sachs purchased a minority stake in the company last year).

Candid and colorful in conversation, Biderman's exhaustive research has produced some alarmingly simple findings.

For instance: "When companies are net buyers of stock, the market goes up, when they're net sellers the market goes down," he says. Indeed, one of his favorite metrics to watch is the number of stock buybacks by corporations, which he says start climbing at the trough of every downturn (something, as we note in our Recovery Index, that hasn't happened yet.)

Biderman talked to FORTUNE's Lee Clifford about what the Recovery Index is showing now, the one move Obama needs to make, and when he thinks the stock market will finally hit bottom.

Fortune: Give us your take on the health of the overall economy right now.

Biderman: Things are getting worse. The job market continues to contract. Incomes keep declining, even after adjusting for the latest round of tax credits. We don't see any slowdown in the rate of declines in incomes or job losses. There's no end in sight.

I've been looking at the numbers, comparing the three-week Easter season this year versus last year. Incomes are down 10%. We haven't seen anything like that for decades.

Fortune: How do you view the policy responses from Washington so far?

Biderman: The only thing that's helping anybody right now is the $400 per person [$800 per couple] tax cut. That's helping somewhat. But I'm a little cynical. My feeling is that the divine purpose of the political system is to raise money for politicians so they can get reelected.

The banks that are in trouble have paid Congress a lot of money over the years. You and I don't pay anything to the congressman. What we would recommend is that instead of focusing on getting the banks to lend, you've got to focus on giving wage earners more money.

Fortune: You don't believe any of the recent stock market rallies have been for real. Explain.

Biderman: Well, what you've had recently is $2 billion a week in tax refunds that started to go out during the first in week February and will continue through the third week in May. I suspect that's part of the reason for the stock market rally, but that's only temporary.

In March there was a little revival in refinancing, but again, I think the number of people who are in a position to take advantage of refinancings right now is pretty small. The glimmers of hope were temporary and now we see that things are declining again.

Fortune: Talk about what you're seeing in terms of the housing market.

Biderman: If we look at homes, while the number of foreclosures seems to be dropping somewhat, the notices of default are at record levels and so we expect the foreclosures to spike up again too. If you look at what's really going on, right after the 'peak' in foreclosures in September, there was a moratorium on foreclosures, but that ended in March. Once those pick up again, it's going to be a new down leg in the real estate market.

Fortune: If there's one policy you could implement now to help fix the economy, what would it be?

Biderman: If we cut withholding rates by 15%, and we did it for three years, it would be $300 billion a year in lower taxes, which is less than it costs to bail out some of these institutions. But we're not doing that, so instead you're creating a situation where more and more consumers are going to be defaulting on their debts. Forget new lending, the real problem for banks is going to be collecting on all these loans, and the problems are going to be way beyond sub prime.

Fortune: In your view, what would be the single best sign that we've hit bottom?

Biderman: That foreclosures dry up. That'll be a sign that household wealth has stabilized. Things aren't going to hit bottom until the real estate market bottoms, and we work through all the problem homes, and people can afford the homes they're in. Then we can grow from there.

Fortune: And when do you think that might be?

Biderman: At least another year. We probably won't see a bottom till sometime in 2010. We're still in retreat.

Fortune: You've long taken issue with the way the government collects some economic data. What bothers you most?

Biderman: Just look at how they track income and jobs. When everybody gets paid, the amount of money withheld goes to the government. From that you could tell who had jobs and how much they're making. But instead of tracking this in aggregate and reporting it in real time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis uses historic data that's 5 to 7 months old and based on state unemployment data to come up with estimate of current income and job gains or losses. Then of course they always go back and revise the number. But they never have a press release about the revisions. What's equally annoying is that nobody's taking the time to say, 'this is crazy!'

The economy is crazy indeed, as seen from the article listed above on CNN Money.  It goes without saying that people are dazed and confused in the current trends of the economy.  It is clear that conditions are worsening, even though the major news sources are telling the opposite.

What can you do as an average American citizen to learn the real truth about money, investing, financial institutions, and is there a way to recover lost wealth, and income in this time of economic uncertainty?

Money Talks Offers Education and Solutions

Money Talks, the program set into motion by Dr. Raymond Jewell, is answering the tough questions concerning the economy.  He is in touch with the current economic trends and knows that average people are hurting today.  His goal is to bring Money Talks to one milllion people over the next three year period.

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Money Talks

Money Talks-The Economy

You often hear that we are now living through the worst recession since the early 1980s, and the comparison is not wrong. But it's ultimately unsatisfying, because it is a little too vague to be useful.

Is the economy only a little worse than it was in the last couple recessions, as some have said, and still a long way from the dark days of 1982? Or are we instead on our way toward something that may even approach the severity of the Great Depression?

Without more specifics, it is hard to judge the staggering stimulus numbers being thrown around Washington. It is hard to know how tough a task the Obama administration is facing — and whether it's running the risk of being too timid or too aggressive.

I thought it would make sense to get some clearer historical perspective, and the economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics were nice enough to help me do so. In the last week, they helped me put together a broad measure of the job market — one including both official unemployment and more subtle kinds — stretching back to 1970. Since the job market covers the entire economy and affects families in tangible ways, it seems to be the single best yardstick.

And it shows, for starters, that the economy is not yet as bad as it was in the early 1980s. It's not even that close to being as bad. The ranks of unemployed and underemployed, controlling for the size of the population, were much larger in 1982 than today.

But economies are a little like battleships. They turn slowly, and you can often tell where they are going before they get there. At The New York Times, we're discouraged from using the word "unprecedented." ("Use the term rarely and only after verifying the history," the stylebook says.)

So suffice it to say that the serious recent declines in retail sales, business spending and employment make it highly unusual that the economy will improve anytime soon. The job market will almost certainly continue to worsen for most of 2009. Even if the much-needed stimulus bill passes, the economy is likely to end the year in roughly as bad a shape as its 1982 nadir. Which is saying something.

The recession of the early 1980s doesn't have a catchy name, and almost half of Americans are too young to have any real memory of it. But it was terrible — qualitatively different from the mild recessions of 1990-91 and 2001.

The first big blow to the economy was the 1979 revolution in Iran, which sent oil prices skyrocketing. The bigger blow was a series of sharp interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve, meant to snap inflation. Home sales plummeted. At their worst, they were 30 percent lower than they are even now (again, adjusted for population size). The industrial Midwest was hardest hit, and the term "Rust Belt" became ubiquitous. Many families fled south and west, helping to create the modern Sun Belt.

Nationwide, the unemployment rate rose above 10 percent in 1982, compared with 7.2 percent last month. But that rate has a couple of basic flaws, as I've discussed in previous columns. It counts people who have been forced to work part time, even though they want to work full time, as fully employed. It also considers people who have given up looking for work — so-called discouraged workers — to be no different from retirees or stay-at-home parents. They simply aren't counted.

Years ago, the Labor Department responded to criticism about these issues by creating several broader measures of joblessness. Unfortunately, they don't exist prior to 1994. But the department was doing similar work in earlier years, which allows the economists who work there to make estimates about how to compare the various survey categories over time. I took these estimates — and they are estimates, not official statistics — and created a measure of unemployment that goes back to 1970.

Including discouraged workers, the measure shows that the unemployment rate was 7.6 percent last month. Another 5.2 percent of the labor force was involuntarily working part time. These two groups bring the combined rate to 12.8 percent.

Even this is an understatement, because the Labor Department's definition of discouraged workers is a little narrow. To be counted, somebody must have looked for a job in the last year. And there appear to be several hundred thousand people — mostly men — who stopped looking for work more than a year ago but would gladly take a good-paying job if one came along. They would lift the rate above 13 percent.

As bad as the number is, it is still not that close to its 1982 peak of 16.3 percent (or anywhere near its Depression levels, which were probably above 30 percent). The early '80s really were that bad.

So why are public opinion polls showing Americans to be even gloomier about the economy today than they were back then? I think there are two main reasons.

First, the economic expansion that just ended wasn't as good as the 1970s expansions. The '70s get a bad rap, and deservedly so in many ways. But median family income still rose 2 percent during the decade, after adjusting for inflation. Over the past decade, it has fallen.

Second, people seem to understand that the worst is yet to come — that the economy has not yet worked off its excesses.

A good reminder came in a recent report on the Manhattan real estate market by Goldman Sachs. It looked at apartment prices relative to rents, incomes and mortgage rates and concluded that prices were 19 to 44 percent higher than historical norms. Jan Hatzius, Goldman's chief economist, was careful to say that prices won't necessarily drop by that much. But we should know by now that old-fashioned economic fundamentals deserve some respect.

In much of the rest of the country, home prices also still have some amount to fall. Banks still have more losses to acknowledge. Companies have more jobs to cut. Some time this year, one in six workers may find themselves unemployed or underemployed, just as was the case in 1982.

The biggest risk is that these problems will feed on themselves and make the situation even worse than now seems likely. That has been the pattern for the past year and a half. If it continues — and it will without a big stimulus package — the economy really could end up in worse shape than it's been in more than 60 years.

Money Talks-The Solution

According to the article posted above from The NY Times, the economy appears to be struggling, to say the least.  What does this mean for the average person on the street?  Is it a pre cursor to more doom and gloom?  Is there really no hope for the future?  Does it mean that you just bury your head in the sand, and give up?

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Money Talks and the Economy

Money Talks and the Economy

The forgettable first half of 2008 is stumbling to a close. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that American employers axed 49,000 jobs in May, the fifth straight month of job losses—an event that signals a recession sure as the glittery ball dropping on Times Square augurs a New Year. The report, which inspired a 394-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Friday, was the latest in a run of bad news. Auto sales, the largest retailing sector in the U.S., were off 10.7 percent in May from the year before. And housing? Ugh. Nationwide, according to the Case-Shiller Index, home prices in the first quarter fell 14 percent.

Yet hope springs eternal that the second half will be better than the first. Economists polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in May believe the economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.7 percent and 1.8 percent in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, tells NEWSWEEK that "home sales and prices in most of the country will improve during the second half of 2008." (Yun is the Little Orphan Annie of forecasters. He's always sure the sun will come out tomorrow.) Last month, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said, "We expect to see a faster pace of economic growth before the end of the year."

The cause for optimism: the U.S. has called in the economic cavalry, which has responded in textbook fashion. The Federal Reserve has aggressively cut interest rates, bringing the Federal Funds rate down from 5.25 percent last September to 2 percent. Earlier this spring, Congress and President Bush, in a rare moment of bipartisan accord, passed a stimulus package, which will shove nearly $100 billion into the pockets of American consumers by mid-July.

But this downturn is likely to last longer than the eight-month-long recession of 2001. While the U.S. financial system processes popped stock bubbles quickly, it has always taken longer to hack through the overhang of bad debt. The head winds that drove the economy into this dead calm— a housing and credit crisis, and rising energy and food prices—have strengthened rather than let up in recent months. To aggravate matters, the twin crises that dominate the financial news—a credit crunch and the global commodity boom—are blunting the stimulus efforts. As a result, the consumer-driven economy may not bounce back as rapidly as it did in the fraught months after 9/11.

As it seeks to regain its footing in the second half, the U.S. economy faces two significant obstacles, neither of which was evident in 2001. The first is entirely homegrown: the self-inflicted wounds of the promiscuous extension and abuse of credit in the housing and financial sectors. The second is a global phenomenon that has comparatively little to do with American behavior: rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food and steel. These trends have conspired to inflict genuine economic pain and deflate consumer confidence. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index in May slumped to a 16-year low.

While the treatment of the current malaise has been essentially identical to the reaction to the 2001 slump—aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts and tax rebates—the symptoms are quite different. In 2001, an implosion in the technology sector and a slump in business investment pushed the economy over the edge. Even though some 3 million jobs were shed between 2001 and 2003, consumers soldiered on through the downturn. "We had a massive reduction in both long- and short-term interest rates, which set off the housing and consumption boom," says Ian Morris, chief U.S. economist at HSBC. (Remember zero-percent car loans?) This time, it's the opposite. While businesses—especially those that export—are holding up, the economy is being dragged down by the cement shoes of a freaked-out consumer and a punk housing market.

The difficulties today start—as they began last year—with housing and housing-related credit. Last Thursday, the Mortgage Bankers Association quarterly report showed that the percentage of mortgage borrowers behind on their payments—6.35 percent—was the highest since the MBA began tracking the number in 1979. It's not just subprime. In the first quarter of 2008, 36 percent of all foreclosures initiated were on prime adjustable-rate mortgages in California. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, says the decline in home prices has slashed $2.5 trillion from household wealth, or about $25,000 per homeowner. The fall has also removed an important source of support for consumer spending, as Americans who grew accustomed to borrowing against rising home equity to finance car purchases or vacations now find themselves bereft. Banks are extricating themselves from the home-equity-line-of-credit business in the same way college students get themselves out of relationships gone bad: abruptly. Judi Froning, a second-grade teacher in San Diego, was surprised last week when she received a letter from Chase informing her that it was terminating her untapped HELOC. "In the light of declining home values, they said they are stopping, effective May 31, any draw on my line of credit," she says.

Despite repeated claims that the damage has been contained, the banks that recklessly financed the housing boom—and then traded mortgage debt even more recklessly—are still cleaning up the mess. But it turns out (surprise!) the same sort of clouded judgment led banks to excesses in commercial lending, and in loans to private-equity firms. The battered financial system, which has raised tens of billions of dollars on onerous terms from new investors to shore up balance sheets, is still likely to suffer more pain from the popped credit bubble, said Bruce Wasserstein, the CEO of the investment bank Lazard, speaking at a New York breakfast. "The harm will radiate for another year." The latest victim: Wachovia CEO G. Thompson Kennedy, cashiered after the North Carolina-based bank suffered a string of losses. Next up: write-offs for bad credit-card and commercial real-estate debt. After a serene period between 2004 and '07 in which the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. went without a single bank failure, four have gone under so far this year. FDIC chairperson Sheila Bair warned of the "possibility that future failures could include institutions of greater size than we have seen in the recent past." In preparation, the agency has brought staffers out of retirement.

Money Talks The Solution

Now, after seeing the report from Newsweek above, there is good news on the horizon. Money Talks is designed to assist, mentor, inform and educate you in the ways that will help you protect yourself in this economy. Money Talks is a no-nonsense business program, designed by Dr. Raymond Jewell, that is making huge statements towards telling people the solutions to their money and financial problems.

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_________________
Dr. Raymond Jewell-Senior Economist
Money Talks
Financial Freedom Radio

Money Talks

Money Talks

In talking about money and finances, it would be noteworthy to look deeper into the aspect of money, to evaluate its importance in the mindset of individuals.  There are two pervasive features that come more clearly into focus when money talks appears.

1.  You have enough money to do the things you wish, buy the items you require and are basically financially sound for the future.

2.  You struggle and strain to make ends meet.  You work increasingly longer hours, perhaps at more than one job, but honestly, you can just never break the glass ceiling on having enough money, in your own mind, to live without stress and be comfortable in your setting.

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When you look at the Money Talks program that Dr. Jewell has put together, live on Google, it is no wonder that so many people are turning and following his teachings and trainings.  As stated before, he can lead you to the door of financial success, but YOU must choose to walk through that door!  Becoming educated in the ways that you are probably losing money right now, will give you the ability to become proactive in the cause of creating financial stability for you and your family.

Money Talks

Money Talks

There is so much confusion right now in the government, and with the economy as a whole, it is difficult, if not almost impossible, for people to find real information that they can use, to learn more about money, finances, and how to grow and prosper, in this dwindling economy. The news sources will tell you one story, that everything is well and growing. It is a fact; however, that your dollar that you are earning at work right now, is slowly being eaten up by factors that you may not even be aware of. The answer to the problem is Money Talks.

Money Talks tells you the real story about how their are four laws that govern the financial institutions of this country. Money Talks breaks through the mystery and confusion of financial legal double talk, and empowers individuals with the ability to learn the insider secrets of wealth recovery and wealth creation as well. Money Talks will actually tell it just exactly like it is, and from there, you make the decision on whether to become proactive in your economic life, or simply bury your head in the sand, and believe that there really is nothing that you can do to save and recover lost wealth.

Here is my offer to you today. Visit the Money Talks site today. Take some time to signup for the various newsletters and free offers that you find there. Listen to the audio recordings and absorb the knowledge that is contained within. If you like the program, and what I have to say about money and finances, then I will be pleased. If you receive the newsletters about Money Talks, and do not find value contained within, simply opt out. The choice is totally up to you in how you wish to live from today!  Money Talks is hard hitting and designed for anyone wishing to improve their current economic situation.

http://www.moneyteleseminars.com
_________________
Dr. Raymond Jewell-Senior Economist
Money Talks
Financial Freedom Radio

PS

Be sure to check out the Google Event Calendar on Internet Tales and Tips SEO Forum, and tune into my Financial Freedom Radio show!

Money Talks

Money Talks

Money Talks is the financial program designed by Dr. Raymond Jewell, the noted business economist, that will empower anyone listening, with the ability to choose their own financial destiny by utilizing proven business and financial techniques taught.  Money Talks is for everyone interested in becoming more financially stable in this ever changing economy.  Money Talks is free to join, and the website listed is home for many Money Talks newsletters, financial resources, and of course many recordings in audio and video format.

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